AILOS← All decision modelers

Decision Architecture / 02

Pro

What does this price change actually do?

Revenue, gross profit, and the customer-loss tolerance band — the number you need to defend the move in a room full of skeptics.

About this tool

About the Pricing Decision Framework

Pricing is the highest-leverage decision most teams make and the one they model worst. Spreadsheets answer the wrong question — 'what does revenue look like at the new price' — and ignore the question that actually matters: how many customers can we lose before this is a worse outcome than doing nothing. The Pricing Change Impact calculator gives you both. Enter current price, proposed price, current customers, gross margin, and an assumed elasticity. The model returns projected revenue, projected gross profit, breakeven customer loss, and the tolerance band your decision actually has to clear. The defend-it brief lays out assumptions explicitly so the conversation in the room is about elasticity and competitive context, not about your math.

When to use it

  • Annual or mid-year price review
  • Repricing a single SKU, plan, or tier
  • Justifying a price increase to a board or pricing committee
  • Modeling a discount, promotion, or land-and-expand experiment
  • Counter-modeling a competitor's price move

Frequently asked

How sensitive should I be to elasticity assumptions?+

Very. The calculator shows breakeven customer loss directly — if your assumed loss is within 10% of breakeven, the decision is too close to call without a pricing test.

Does this work for SaaS pricing changes?+

Yes. Use ARPU as the price input and customer count as the customer input. Account for churn lag separately — most SaaS price changes show their full effect 2–3 quarters out.

What about price-decrease scenarios?+

Enter the lower price as 'proposed.' The model returns required customer growth to maintain gross profit — the mirror image of the loss-tolerance question.

Related tools

Your numbers

Pro modeler

Read the framing free. Run the numbers on Pro.

Inputs are locked on the Free plan. Upgrade to run every modeler with your own numbers.

Upgrade to Pro →

Sample numbers shown. Upgrade to Pro to edit and save your own.

Gross profit change (annualized monthly basis)

$23,490

Gross profit goes up about $23.5K — and you can lose up to 28.8% of customers before that breaks.

Tolerance band: lose up to 28.8% and still come out ahead

Gross profit delta at ±10% volume

Pessimistic
$12,231
Realistic
$23,490
Optimistic
$34,749

Key numbers

Current revenue$118,800
Projected revenue$139,320
Current gross profit$89,100
Projected gross profit$112,590
Customer-loss tolerance28.8%

What to do next

  1. 01

    Pre-announce the change to one customer segment first and measure the actual churn response.

    Owner · Pricing owner
  2. 02

    Set a kill-switch: if churn passes the tolerance band in 60 days, roll back.

    Owner · Pricing owner
  3. 03

    Pair the change with a packaging update so customers see new value, not just a higher number.

    Owner · Pricing owner

Save this scenario

Create a free account to name, save, and revisit this run from your dashboard.

Save it →

Plain-English read

Baseline read

You're raising price from $99 to $129 — a 30.3% change. With expected volume moving -10%, projected gross profit shifts by $23.5K.

The breakeven test: at the new price, you can lose up to 28.8% of customers and still match today's gross profit. Your current churn is 4%, which is well inside that tolerance band.

The numbers favor the change. The risk isn't math — it's whether your volume estimate holds when reality arrives.

Share this decision

  • Price increase: $99 → $129.
  • Assuming -10% volume, GP moves $23.5K.
  • Tolerance: lose up to 28.8% of customers before today's GP is at risk.
  • Sensitivity (±10% volume): $12.2K to $34.7K.