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Do it, shrink it, or kill it?

Expected value, risk-adjusted ROI, and the probability your project actually has to clear to be worth the lock-in.

About this tool

About the Go/No-Go Decision Framework

Every quarter, leaders kill projects they should have funded and fund projects they should have killed — usually because the conversation in the room is about conviction, not expected value. The Project Go/No-Go framework forces the math. Enter the upside if it works, the cost if you commit, your honest probability of success, and (optionally) the cost of doing nothing. The model returns expected value, risk-adjusted ROI, and the breakeven success probability — the win-rate your project has to clear to be worth funding at all. Use it for AI pilots, product bets, new-market entry, hiring sprints, build-vs-buy calls, and any decision where the question is 'is this worth the resources and risk.' The output is a one-page brief you can paste into a steerco deck without further editing.

When to use it

  • Greenlighting or killing an AI pilot at the quarterly review
  • New-market or new-segment entry decision
  • Build vs. buy on a major internal tool
  • Funding a discretionary initiative against a hard backlog
  • Postmortem on a project that failed — was it bad math or bad luck?

Frequently asked

What's the difference between expected value and ROI?+

Expected value = (upside × probability) − (cost × (1 − probability)). ROI ignores probability and treats success as certain. EV is the right lens for any decision that could fail.

How do I set the success probability honestly?+

Use base rates. AI pilots succeed ~25% of the time at enterprise scale. New-product launches ~20%. New-market entry ~30%. Adjust from there based on team and conditions — don't start from gut feel.

Why does breakeven probability matter?+

It tells you the win-rate threshold above which the project is worth funding. If you can't honestly defend a probability above breakeven, the decision is no-go regardless of upside.

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Expected value

$20,000

Expected value is about $20K over 9 months — you're 3 points above the breakeven probability of 57%.

Shrink scope · margin is thin (5% risk-adj ROI)

Expected value at probability ±15 points

Pessimistic
-$92,500
Realistic
$20,000
Optimistic
$132,500

Key numbers

Probability-weighted revenue$450,000
Total cost (loaded + opportunity)$430,000
Risk-adjusted ROI5%
Breakeven probability57%
Time to result9 mo

What to do next

  1. 01

    Shrink scope to the highest-confidence slice — protect EV by cutting risk.

    Owner · Owner
  2. 02

    Re-rate probability with one more piece of evidence before committing budget.

    Owner · Sponsor
  3. 03

    Set a 30-day go/no-go checkpoint.

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Plain-English read

Baseline read

Stripped down: $750K × 60% probability − $430K all-in cost = $20K expected value over 9 months.

For this to be worth doing, your probability of success needs to clear 57% — the breakeven line. You're at 60%, 3 points above that line.

Time matters: 9 months is a long lock-in for the team. If something more certain shows up mid-project, the opportunity cost compounds — re-evaluate at the halfway mark.

Share this decision

  • EV = $750K × 60% − $430K = $20K.
  • Breakeven probability 57%; current estimate 60%.
  • Risk-adjusted ROI 5% over 9 months.
  • Verdict: Shrink scope · margin is thin (5% risk-adj ROI).